Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.803698 3.279308 3.806978 4.435260 5.162428 5.977062 6.958427
2025-12-07 2.028830 2.652883 3.420924 4.433182 5.729677 7.331890 9.459589
2025-12-14 1.545280 2.215783 3.114521 4.401578 6.191153 8.584370 12.019936
2025-12-21 1.236330 1.917299 2.898427 4.405146 6.649030 9.853102 14.758397
2025-12-28 1.103970 1.830925 2.944898 4.760220 7.625095 11.947486 18.930824
2026-01-04 0.946471 1.668861 2.839644 4.852856 8.200436 13.506787 22.502169
2026-01-11 0.821591 1.532310 2.744678 4.933872 8.750535 15.076099 26.273137
2026-01-18 0.711271 1.398083 2.626971 4.949184 9.179119 16.483674 29.938075
2026-01-25 0.614351 1.269116 2.494666 4.911746 9.499063 17.730626 33.464348
2026-02-01 0.504685 1.094857 2.249475 4.623982 9.314645 18.051434 35.360963
2026-02-08 0.429094 0.974804 2.087765 4.468137 9.349563 18.762756 38.044150
2026-02-15 0.377611 0.895911 1.995058 4.433811 9.612606 19.927024 41.718054
2026-02-22 0.350188 0.867404 2.007452 4.630277 10.394492 22.244316 48.048396
2026-03-01 0.307729 0.796899 1.918892 4.598060 10.696805 23.646480 52.728637
2026-03-08 0.270604 0.731917 1.831902 4.555387 10.970104 25.023541 57.537823
2026-03-15 0.241341 0.680706 1.768173 4.555751 11.338898 26.649125 63.087659
2026-03-22 0.235645 0.689749 1.851318 4.921254 12.608336 30.417826 73.866172
2026-03-29 0.216276 0.657971 1.827111 5.016488 13.242394 32.820315 81.814545
2026-04-05 0.198507 0.627123 1.800093 5.099984 13.858573 35.254364 90.130431
2026-04-12 0.179925 0.590132 1.750450 5.115744 14.304401 37.333897 97.844693
2026-04-19 0.161492 0.549780 1.684699 5.077082 14.602142 39.085301 104.961814
2026-04-26 0.136695 0.484140 1.535544 4.780010 14.161941 38.926007 107.239950
2026-05-03 0.119430 0.439181 1.439128 4.619115 14.073393 39.659395 111.911800